The overtaking question

Questions over the impact of Formula 1's controversial new regulations are sure to creep into every critical discussion in coming weeks, after this weekend's Turkish Grand Prix set new all-time records for most overtaking moves and most pit stops in a race. For 2011, all Formula 1 cars now run on Pirelli tyres, the Italian company having replaced Bridgestone at the end of the 2010 season as sole tyre supplier. In pre-season testing it quickly became clear that Pirelli's rubber was a major step below Bridgestone's in terms of durability. Pirelli made haste to point out that this degradation was deliberate, as it would result in greater performance differential between drivers at different times, as well as more varied pit strategies.

The return of Pirelli has coincided with two other measures intended to promote overtaking and help create an exciting new era of Formula One. The return of Kinetic Energy Recovery Systems (KERS) technology first used in 2009, allowing drivers to gain a boost of 80 horsepower for seven seconds per lap, is a major development but has slipped under the radar thanks to the divisive new Drag Reduction System (DRS). The DRS allows a driver following another car to open a slot in his rear-wing to decrease aerodynamic drag, resulting in a speed increase of up to 15 km/h which drastically aids the overtaking process. The system was devised as a counter to the notorious turbulence effect felt when following another car. Turbulence has become prevalent over the last ten to fifteen years as car performance has increasingly shifted away from the mechanical to the aerodynamic. This loss of downforce when within a few seconds of a leading car had reigned supreme, largely cancelling out any attempted regulations to promote overtaking until this year. Usage of the DRS is extremely limited however, as a driver must be within one second of the car in front at a single defined point on the circuit and is allowed to deploy the system only in a single zone, generally the circuit's longest straight.

The chancy new regulations have for the most part, been a huge success. The first four races of the 2011 season have been a marked departure from the recent formulaic past. Pirelli degradation has resulted in more pit-stops, during which positions regularly change, and KERS and DRS have through their limited mandate, given just enough of a small helping hand to overtake. At least that was the unanimous feeling after the first race or two. But with the Chinese Grand Prix, and now even more noticeably in Istanbul this week, the beginnings of a major rumbling from a number of circles have started to emerge.

In the opening race in Australia, a solid 30 overtaking moves were successfully made. This jumped to a wonderful 70 for the second round in Malaysia, hardly a surprise given its two generous straights. In both cases nearly half these passes had direct influence from DRS technology. But the upturn kept going unabated. In China there were 90 moves, in Turkey a staggering and record-breaking 112. One should never scoff at too much overtaking, but the telling statistic is that of those 112 moves, 71 were as a result of DRS deployment. Anyone watching the race could see the ease with which cars were able to open their rear wing and drive past the car in front as if they were standing still. These moves were complete well before the braking zone, whereas the FIA mandate for the DRS technology was merely to assist cars in getting side by side in the braking zone, at which point driver skill would come to the fore.

As unthinkable an irony as it may be, the Turkish Grand Prix has led to a number of criticisms from prominent members of the paddock, including drivers, that there is too much overtaking action in Formula One now, and that it is too artificial. These concerns don't just refer to the on-track action, but also to the spiraling number of pit-stops the high wear rate of the Pirelli tyres have necessitated. The Turkish Grand Prix not only equalled a 28 year old overtake record, but broke an 18 year old record for most number of pit stops in a single race, 79.

The notion that Formula One could have so suddenly shifted from lacking action to having too much is for the most part a childish one, and the majority of fans and people involved in the sport have given the new regulations a major thumbs up. The critics seem to have two major beefs. In Turkey as soon as any car came close to another through the kink that leads onto the long DRS-zone straight, it was a foregone conclusion that they would ease past and slot back into the racing line in front of their rival before the corner. The one driver who was less keen to give up his position so easily was Michael Schumacher, and he duly caused at least two amateurish collisions into the corner. If these positional changes weren't enough, four-stop strategies have become the norm now and many, led by Ferrari Team Principal Stefano Domenicali, claim that the constant position changing due to pitstops have made races too fast-moving and confusing for casual fans to follow. I wonder however if Domenicali shortchanges the intellectual capabilities of his sport's following. Furthermore, the plethora of passes in Turkey was an anomaly, the DRS system is still a work-in-progress and will clearly be deployed at a less liberal juncture next year.

Istanbul of its own accord is a particularly friendly track to the cause of overtaking. Like at the previous race in Shanghai, the DRS zone was at a traditional overtaking hot-spot, at the end of two long periods of non-stop full throttle which are barely matched on the entire calendar. One cannot judge the effectiveness of DRS after tracks like Shanghai and Istanbul. Next week's Round 5 of the championship is the Spanish Grand Prix at the challenging but notoriously dull Circuit de Catalunya. The Barcelona circuit is the testing home away from home for most Formula One teams, and as such most drivers and setup engineers can almost tune into the circuit with their eyes closed. Therefore the Spanish Grand Prix will always reveal the true pecking order of Formula One, as there is little in the way of driver struggle or setup error to explain a performance away. But more to the point, the error-free perfection with which most drivers can navigate the circuit, and the greater distance between cars, means that overtaking has traditionally been virtually non-existent throughout the circuit's 20 year history. This is  a tradition which may finally be mercifully changed thanks to the new regulations.


But with the new regulations being a work-in-progress, the FIA must make sure they are able to learn the lessons gleaned from the opening races for the future, because there are definite concerns which need to be addressed. There were early criticisms of the DRS when it was first tabled as an idea during 2010, which amidst the hoopla of Istanbul have largely been lost. Drivers were initially opposed to the system because they feared the extreme closing speeds would cause accidents like Mark Webber's in Valencia last year, where Webber rode up over the back of the much slower Lotus of Heikki Kovalainen and was launched into spectacular death-defying somersault through the sky. This is one reason why the inconsistency of allowing DRS usage at any time in Practice and Qualifying, but only at a single strictly defined zone in the race, needs to be addressed. In Melbourne, looking to get his wing flap open early, Adrian Sutil had a bemusing spin at the normally unchallenging exit of the final turn, almost planting his Force India into the pit wall. Drivers are pushing their risk taking further and further, employing the system through fast corners not just on the straight. The aerodynamically supreme Red Bull can already be seen doing this regularly. It is only a matter of time before an overambitious application of the system mid-corner, or a mechanical failure which leaves the flap open into a braking zone, will cause a serious accident.

The regularity of pit-stops could also prove to be dangerous in time, as Domenicali pointed out after the Turkish Grand Prix. Tracks with tighter pit lanes, such as many of the upcoming European circuits, will struggle to handle the overcrowding and may lead to potential accidents in pit lane, which are naturally a safety hazard to nearby mechanics. Those mechanics also face increasing pressure as the regularity of pit activity increases, and their errors can just be as dangerous a few laps later when the driver is going full speed as they are to life and limb inside the garage.

The development direction of the Pirelli tyres could prove to be the ultimate solution to both these problems. The combination of danger and artificiality means that although it has proven a useful bonus, the Drag Reduction System is not the most sustainable future development. KERS on the other hand is at the forefront of modern motoring technology, with major benefits for road car technology. If it can be tweaked to possibly include a bonus especially for the car behind as DRS provides, KERS combined with the Pirelli tyres should do the job of providing exciting on-track action adequately. At tracks like Spain and Monaco, difference in tyre performance is likely to make create far more overtaking than any DRS boost anyway. The problem with Pirelli's 'deliberate degradation' is the specific way the profile of their tyres wear down, and the performance differential. Pirelli's harder compounds have proven far slower than the soft compounds compared to Bridgestone's equivalent tyres last year. Were they closer in performance there would be far more differentiation in strategy choice. The main problem however is that the Pirelli's are said to colloquially 'fall off a cliff', losing all performance almost immediately upon the beginning of degradation. Trying to handle such extreme wear is beyond the capabilities of even the most smooth drivers like Jenson Button. Consequently every team is forced onto a uniform three or four-stop strategy.

Pirelli need to change their tyre profiles so that they still begin to wear quickly and lose peak performance, but do not drop so harshly off the proverbial cliff. This would create far greater strategic variation (should we go 1,2,3 or 4-stops?), and rather than resigning to come into the pits at the first sign of wear, good tyre management would be rewarded. The hustle and bustle of the pit lane would also somewhat decrease as the race would likely have less total pit stops. But most importantly, the polar extremes in strategy of so many different cars would create more extreme performance gaps, and consequently more overtaking. Every Grand Prix would be even more strategically unpredictable and exciting than they already are.

The Vettel enigma: Why we could have another Schumacher

Two races into the 2011 Formula One Season it is reigning world champion Sebastian Vettel who sits emphatically atop the Driver's Championship with a perfect 50 points. The signs for the rest of the year are ominous as Vettel, despite some impressive and surprising race pace from McLaren, won both the Australian and Malaysian Grands Prix with relative ease. A variety of frustrations have beset his interminably unfortunate team-mate Mark Webber, who sits in a tie for 3rd with just 22 points. With the closeness at time in race pace, and Webber's struggles, one could be forgiven for thinking we have yet another exciting competitive year on our hands. There's every indication that may not be the case however. At regular vital intervals Red Bull have shown that they have easily the year's premier car, as can only be expected from master designer Adrian Newey who Martin Brundle aptly called "the Leonardo Da Vinci of Formula One."

Rumour has it that at this weekend's Chinese Grand Prix, every team in the paddock except the three new boys, and Red Bull, will run with their Kinetic Energy Recovery Systems technology. This technology acts as a glorified push to pass system essentially, with a complex system of energy recovery under braking being able to transfer back into the power train for 80bhp extra power per lap, for seven seconds. The FIA introduced the scheme for the primary purpose of overtaking of course, but it is said to be worth on some circuits more than half a second per lap. Red Bull have had problems with faulty KERS since the introduction of their car and have swept to both pole positions and both victories almost entirely without the system's bonus power. The disadvantage is twofold though, as the KERS motor's 35kg weight means 35kg less ballast to move around the car, significantly limiting the potential for optimum weight distribution. If Red Bull do decide to remove the system from their car entirely in China, they will shed the one element that seems to have most affected the stability of the car. The big question at this race, especially if without KERS, is whether the RB7 will be better balanced and able to extend its already sizable gap to the rest of the field. If this happens I fear we may not see Vettel threatened on his way to an emphatic title defense.

The possibly mistaken view that 2011 is going to be thrillingly close comes from the simple fact that 2010 was also deceiving in its tightness. 2010 was really an astonishing season, with five men leading the world championship and the unprecedented scenario of four drivers still in the running at the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Vettel won the title despite having not led the points standings once during the entire season before the final race. Throughout the whole season Vettel utterly dominated qualifying and always loomed as a man likely to threaten for the title, even when he was as low as fifth in the standings.

In truth Sebastian could call himself unlucky that he wasn't already a World Champion. For all of his astonishingly short career he had impressed, from scoring a point on debut at the age of 19, to shining spectacularly as a late season replacement for Toro Rosso in 2007. In 2008, after a tough start adjusting to a difficult car, Vettel was supreme, scoring a remarkable pole to flag win for the small team in driving rain at Monza. Then he came to Red Bull in 2009 and largely dominated his new team-mate Mark Webber in the process. Webber was already entrenched at the team and is not just experienced but fantastically fast. Before Vettel no-one had come close to challenging Webber's domination over all his team-mates for qualifying pace. Vettel won third time out in China and went on to win three more races on his way to second in the championship, not too far behind Jenson Button. Although few would begrudge Button his title, the truth remains that all six of his wins came in the first seven races thanks in large part to the headstart his Brawn GP team had by virtue of a loophole in the regulations. By that time Newey's RB5 had established itself as the class of the field and Button did not win again all year.

Vettel came in 2010 frustrated from being so near yet so far in 2009. His nerves and inexperience often came to the forefront, in a series of often controversial errors. In reality, Vettel's own faltering resolve, and the fallible reliability of the RB6, conspired to almost lose a championship that should gone their way in a canter.

Vettel won the 2010 World Championship with 256 points on the back of five wins. Alonso was just four points behind (seven points seperate 1st and 2nd in every race to give an idea how close that is), on 252 with Webber on 242 and McLaren's Lewis Hamilton on 240. Vettel could very easily have run away with the title by over 100 points however, but was denied liberally by car failures and brain failures. The most inopportune mechanical gremlins afflicted Vettel while leading three grands prix, two of them surely guaranteed victories. Vettel's own youthful exuberance ruined his weekend at least another four times. Here's a short summary of only those major setbacks which spring to the forefront of the mind:

Bahrain - Vettel dominated all weekend and was easily on his way to a pole-to-flag victory before a spark plug failure on the engine hamstrung the car. The Ferraris of Alonso and Massa drove past as if Vettel was standing still and finished 1-2. Even with the initially fatal-looking problem, Vettel still somehow salvaged 4th.

Australia - Once again Vettel took a dominant pole position and pulled immediately away at the front before a break failure plunged him into the gravel and out of the race. With the wet conditions Vettel was far from guaranteed victory but surely lost major points again.

Spain - Another break failure denied Vettel 2nd place and once again it was the class of the man which still salvaged 3rd (with help from Lewis Hamilton who crashed out of 2nd) when it looked as if he was set for retirement.

Turkey - The famous collision, as Vettel threw away a guaranteed 18 points and possible 25 with an ill-advised move on team-mate Mark Webber to take the lead. The move handed victory to McLaren but while Webber recovered to 3rd, it was DNF for Vettel.

 Great Britain - After racing to his now customary pole position, Vettel got a poor start and then an over-aggressive squeeze on team-mate Webber to try and hold the lead left Vettel off the track and with a puncture that sent him to dead last. He recovered to finish 7th but with Red Bull's dominant pace it should have been at least 2nd.

Germany - Yet again Vettel fluffed the start from pole, losing out to both Ferrari's, and that's where he stayed all day.

Hungary - Another pole, another solid lead. Then an obscure safety-car rule cost Vettel of all things, as he failed to stay within 10 car lengths of the safety-car in front and was given a drive-through penalty that dropped him to 3rd.

Belgium - Like Australia, the race at Spa was wet and wild with no guarantees, but Vettel made extra sure he wouldn't score points with an amateurish crash into Jenson Button that broke his front wing and earned him a drive-through penalty. This was compounded by a puncture later in the race and Vettel finished 15th.

Korea - For the 3rd time, and most heartbreaking, Vettel's RB6 gave up the ghost while he led convincingly. This time there was just 10 laps to go and Vettel was well clear of Fernando Alonso when his engine gave way spectacularly, seemingly ending his championship chances.


Obviously mistakes can happen, even more assuredly will reliability strike at inopportune moments. But there is much to read from Vettel and Red Bull's near-self destruction in 2010. What must be remembered is that Vettel is just 23 years of age, comfortably the sport's youngest ever World Champion. Furthermore, his Red Bull team are also babies in the grand scheme of things, having entered F1 in 2005 and only become competitive in 2009 as Adrian Newey's influence took over. Neither team or driver could be expected to possess the kind of battle-hardened consistent acumen to get the job done as the old hands at Ferrari and McLaren might have.

The fact is that Vettel and Red Bull were unlucky not to be champions in 2009, and 2010 should have been a walk in the park. The reason it was not was because neither party had ever reached these heights before. Now the job is done, the ambition is achieved, and the pressure which seemed to utterly overwhelm anyone near Vettel, has been lifted. Since it debuted in testing this year, Newey's RB7 has looked as fast as can ever be expected, but also possessing of nearly flawless reliability. More importantly, Sebastian looks to have followed the same path. There is an aura of calm contentment around Vettel these days which belies his age, and clearly not by coincidence, he has looked ominously metronomic on track.

Sebastian Vettel is clearly one of a handful of truly special drivers in the world today, surely matched only by Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton. At his best it is arguable he is unmatched even by those peers. Adrian Newey IS unmatched at what he does, that bears no cause for argument. Vettel has shown signs in the two races so far in 2011, that he can match the uncanny speed he was born with, to the kind of inch-perfect precision that made the only other German World Champion Michael Schumacher so unbeatable at times. If Adrian Newey can give him the car to match for years to come, who's to say there won't be another German dynasty?

The World Cup Solution

This week we enter the knockout stage of the Cricket World Cup, with a quarter-line up which was essentially a foregone conclusion at the outset of the tournament a month ago. However the infinite insanity of the ICC, creating a tournament format to ensure a maximum number of games for the financial lynch pins of the sport and avoid the kind of economic farce of 2007, must not detract from what has been a thoroughly entertaining month of Cricket. The nature of this most unique of sports fundamentally ensures that mismatches will always find a way to happen. The default way of things would seem to involve whining about the group stage being boring or predictable because of the lack of quality match ups, while in another Internet tab ranting spiritedly on how evil the ICC are to get rid of the Associate nations for forthcoming World Cups. The supposed faultiness of Cricket's showpiece tournament has become a self-fulfilling prophecy, with the incompetence of the ICC and the irritability of a demanding cricketing public dooming the World Cup to a perpetual lack of appreciation.

By every logical measure this 10th edition of the World Cup has been an unqualified success, particularly compared to the Caribbean abomination preceding. Ticket sales have been excellent, and prices mercifully brought back down to Earth unlike four years ago. As for the Cricket itself, we largely have England to thank for the excitement and tension of the group stage. Group A admittedly suffered from the prolonged and foregone format, but Group B was anyone's guess until the final days. If Bangladesh had the experience to deal with home expectation and avoid their spectacular collapses, if England had been unable to contain the West Indies' thrilling run chase, and had Asoka De Silva not committed the tournament's biggest umpiring howler just as Ireland looked set to overcome the West Indies, the results could have been very different. It is just a shame really that the ICC as ever had to be so unconscionably simple-minded as to come up with such a staid format. It's amazing to think how great could this World Cup could have been. As it stands, if the final seven games provide their fair share of drama we still might have the best ever edition of the modern dozen-plus team coloured clothing tournament yet.

Something must be done about the absurdity of having Quarter Finals in a tournament which, with respect to Bangladesh, has a clear eight team hierarchy. You only have to look at the thrashing World No.7 New Zealand doled out to the 10th full member Zimbabwe to understand what an inopportune juncture for dramatic tension a cutoff of eight is. The next tournament must be different, and lo and behold it is. You'd think the ICC might have seen reason. But alas this remains a notion of a cricket fan's wildest imaginings. Only the ICC could have the genius to devise an infinitely worse format for 2015's tournament in Australia and New Zealand. The format is not finalised yet, but what is assured is that only 10 teams will be admitted to the tournament. The decision to, in all probability, entirely exclude the nations where Cricket remains at its most relatable and innocent, and who most vitally need development and exposure, is tacit confirmation that the power brokers who run Cricket have their brains in their back pockets. As a 20 year old Australian, 2015 will be the first World Cup I'll have the pleasure of experiencing without a dummy in my mouth (notwithstanding the need I still have for this one judging by this article.) I can attest to the immense disappointment many Cricket fans must feel at this money-grubbing decision. But as previously stated, 2011's structure too will not do. So to what middle ground do we go?

The Solution

Twelve teams. Two groups of six. The Top two teams from each group advance to the Semi Finals. 33 games. Roughly 30 days.

For all the complexities and passions of the World Cup it's really quite simple. 14 teams is too many. 10 is not enough. 12 is right in the middle. I'll go into the main two reasons in detail, but the benefits of the system are self explanatory. There would be a third less games than the 49 in 2011's World Cup. The tournament would be concise but retain all its status and grandeur, it would be compact but still open to developing nations. 

The Associates

Aside from Ireland, and the odd fleeting patches of promise from the Dutch and the Canadians, the Associates have been disappointing at this World Cup and have been the primary contributor to the bad taste in many people's mouths. It is clear that I am of the popular view that 10 teams is patently unfair and the Associate members must be given an opportunity. But in the current state of play, 14 teams is too many for complex reasons beyond the obvious. Generally the opposing arguments relating to the minnows are that on the one hand, they need international exposure, but on the other hand what good is going around for a month getting constantly thrashed? Both these problems can be fixed by processes completely outside the boundaries of the quadrennial showcase of Cricket. Firstly more bilateral contests between Associate nations and Full member nations must be set up. But this is both unlikely to fully eventuate because of the self-interested Cricket boards, and not the full extent of the fix. Secondly, the in-house stakes need to be raised.

Four slots is too many, and there are too few Associates with a genuine Cricketing infrastructure. In the foreseeable future the 13th and 14th ranked teams in the world are not going to be of sufficient quality to warrant a World Cup berth. If only two slots were available, (one of which would surely go to Ireland), the onus would be on those nations (and the ICC to support them) to get to the level they need to get to qualify for a World Cup. The overall competitive level of the World Cricket League, involving the Associate nations, would clearly increase, and every World Cup would be guaranteed two respectable teams who had to achieve a certain high level just to qualify. In time all the front running Associates would develop and the World Cup could expand beyond 12 teams. But either way it moves forward instead of treading water. The overall quality has generally increased, but the fact remains that there is a huge gulf between the world's 8th and 9th ranked teams and the 13th and 14th, just as there was 20 years ago.

Why Quarter-Finals do not work

On the surface this would seem obvious, as it has become indelibly customary for cricket fans to frustratedly fret about how irrelevant the first month of the World Cup is before the inevitable eight teams line up in the knockout stage. But now the Quarter Finals are here everyone is sufficiently pumped up and satisfied that the remainder of the tournament will be both dramatic and fair. Neither is necessarily so. Because the quality differential between Cricket's 1st and 8th ranked teams is so great, Quarter Finals more often than not result in one (or both) of two undesirable situations. The first has been exemplified in a blazing pile of Caribbean ineptitude this week at the World Cup, where the lowest ranked of the eight teams left, The West Indies, served up nothing but a variety platter of different types of awful, and were mercilessly browbeaten by Pakistan, a team not known for being too clinical. 

The second scenario we have thankfully escaped to any notable level at this World Cup. Regardless of whether the tournament is 12,14 or 16 teams, making the Quarter Finals can be achieved exclusively by beating only the minnows in your group, even if thoroughly outclassed in every game against a Test playing nation. England's infamous 1996 World Cup team achieved this ignominious distinction, finishing 4th in their six team group with just two wins from five, over hapless debutants the United Arab Emirates and The Netherlands. The games against New Zealand, Pakistan and South Africa all ended in comprehensive defeats. By finishing fourth you would play the top team from the opposing group, who may have a peerless unbeaten record. There is every chance this game would skew to either unsatisfying extreme, either the undefeated team would utterly humiliate their below-par opponents, or because of the fantastic beauty of Cricket, an upset might happen. I am all for upsets and am not laying claim to knockout stages inherently being flawed because 'the best team might not win.' An English Football style League only model is out of date in the modern world of corporate sport, where it is the big money events like Grand Finals that bring home the bacon. But I feel that in a cricketing context it is too far towards the extremities of unfairness to have scenario like the 1996 World Cup once again. In 96 South Africa won all five group games but then lost to the West Indies who'd won just two from five (including an astonishing capitulation to lowly Kenya) on the back of a single heroic innings by Brian Lara.

The sport is not football. Cricket operates in a uniquely bizarre way, where different nations in its hierarchy are allowed or denied to play the actual primary form of the game. There are only ten test nations, basic mathematical logic tells you that eight is too big a sufficient number to weed down towards subsequent to a group stage. Teams like England in 1996, and this year's West Indians, prove that the Cricket World Cup with eight teams in the final knockout stage fails to convey what a final knockout stage of such a tournament should convey. That is the impression that we are now down to the true final few elites, who have already achieved so much and now must jump the last but biggest hurdles on the way to glory. But four teams is a different kettle of fish.

Why Semi Finals work

I am really quite astonished that, of all the varying and extensive dialogues I've participated in, and opinions I've read, no-one seems to to have thought of or publicly aired the idea of going straight to the Semis. It is surprising because it feels so fundamentally right and obvious. One reason for the oversight may be that in the late 20th and 21st century, sport as an entire entity has softened up. As an Australian I can readily point to some of the recent finals systems used in our football codes, such as Top 10 of 20, and ridiculously, Top 8 of 14. When did finals criterion, both in a single tournament like a World Cup, and in an annual league post-season, become so much easier to fulfil. NRL teams in this decade can win only 10 or 11 of 24 games, yet make the finals and conceivably be only four wins from premiership glory. It is no coincidence that by far the most exciting and successful Cricket World Cup I've ever experienced, was South Africa 2003. It had the harshest ratio of teams participating to teams advancing. There were 14 teams and just 6 would move on, the top 3 from each group, into a Super Six stage. South Africa, The West Indies, England and Pakistan all failed to advanced, and they all invariably were involved in tense life or death thrillers in the process. However the Super Six concept, albeit one I enjoyed, has also proven unpopular and untenable because of both its needless complexity, and it drawing the length of the tournament out a bit too much. So all that leaves is Super Four. The good old Semi-Final.

Cricket in its current state is perfect for a 10/12/14 to 4 straight Semi-Final scenario. Six teams fill the top echelon roughly, with New Zealand slightly behind and then the following group beginning at the West Indies. If you had to pick a single number as your cutoff point between stages at a World Cup, for the highest possible drama and unpredictability as to who would and wouldn't make the cut, it would have to be four. This also shortens the tournament overall. Twelve teams in two groups of six would play 30 games, and then there would be a mere three further games. Every group game between major nations would not be genuinely of value, instead of holding a largely artificially derived value where its all about 'where in the top four' a team might finish. Behind this facade, everyone knows that both teams are still in the tournament regardless, and this reduces the stakes tenfold. But if it were only the top two advancing, a team would know that one loss and they may be out, two losses and they probably will be.

Happily this World Cup has amplified the wisdom behind the concept in the way it has played out. If just the top two teams from both groups moved on to the next stage in this World Cup, then the last three showcase games involving Test nations in the group stage would all have been sudden death blockbusters. The 42nd and last Group game between India and the West Indies was 2nd vs 3rd. The winner would have made the Semi-Finals, the loser gone home. Before that, Group A climaxed with Australia vs Pakistan and New Zealand vs Sri Lanka. Ignoring unusual happenings, this is a straight shootout. The two winners came 1st and 2nd, the two losers came 3rd and 4th. This may seem harsh on Australia, to miss out from a single loss in their last game, but that's the way it goes. Australia and Sri Lanka had the unique circumstance of their game (which as it turned out was THE pivotal game to decide 2nd and 3rd in the group) being washed out and the points shared. You can't legislate against extenuating circumstance. But for Australia, elimination would have been fair punishment for their scratchy wins over Canada and Kenya. Therein lies the final bonus gem of the format. Every single game, even those monotonous mismatches, take on new importance and tension because net run rate becomes even more vitally important to a team's very survival. Take note ICC. It only needs a careful tweak and your World Cup will retain its former glory.

Famous (and not so famous) sporting birthdays: March 1-7

March 1, 1956 - Balwinder Singh Sandhu (Cricket)

BS Sandhu was a useful (if unspectacular) medium pace bowler for India over the course of an International career lasting barely two years. Sandhu played just eight tests, without any major success. He possessed no great arsenal of pace or variation, but could swing the ball mildly in both directions. He qualifies unequivocally as one of the not-so-famous birthdays this week to most, yet any Indian cricket fan over the age of 30 must surely remember his name for a single delivery. In the 1983 World Cup final India had been bowled out for a paltry 183 by the mighty West Indians, who had won both World Cups to date. Early on in what seemed like a regulation run-chase, legendary West Indies opener Gordon Greenidge shouldered arms to what looked like another innocuous delivery from Sandhu. But the ball nipped back off-the seam just enough to take out Greenidge's off-stump. To the surprise of no-one, Sandhu didn't take another wicket or have any great impact on the rest of the match, but that famous ball will live on in the annals of Indian Cricket. It sparked a collapse that saw the West Indies all out for 140 and crowned India world champions for the only time to date.

March 2, 1982 - Ben Roethlisberger (American Football)

Compared to other contact sports around the world (except perhaps Ice Hockey), the average age of professional American Footballers is notably high. It is a measure of the man's greatness that even isolated from the sport to the extent we are in Australia, sports fans have known Roethlisberger's name for so long and yet he has only just turned 28. The quarter-back for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Roethlisberger is one of those few names like 'Manning', 'Brady' and 'Favre' who casual Australians can turn to when trying to fake a credible knowledge of the States' most quintessentially American sport. Roethlisberger has also achieved more in the sport than any of his contemporaries could manage by such a young age, most notably becoming the all time youngest Super Bowl winning Quarter-back with the Steelers in February 2006.

March 2 1988 - Matthew Mitcham (Diving)

Australian Matthew Mitcham dived into the public consciousness with one number: 112.80. This was the Olympic record smashing single dive Mitcham pulled out, when needing a mammoth 107.30 to beat China's Xhuo Luxin to gold in the 10m Platform Diving event at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Mitcham is the latest in a long line of Australian divers who have given the sport a resurgence in the country over the past ten years. Mitcham participated without major fanfare in the Melbourne Commonwealth Games of 2006 at the not particularly young (for diving) age of 18, and had a similar lack of impact in the 3m Springboard event at Beijing. But an inspired set of dives off the 10m platform set off whisperings of one final Australian medal on the closing night of the games, but surely no-one including Mitcham thought it was going to be gold until that final magic dive.

March 4 1936 - Jim Clark (Motor Racing)

The story of Formula 1 driver Jim Clark is one of the great tragedies of motor racing. He was a freakish talent matched by few before or since, yet is often never remembered in quite the same breath as other all time greats like Fangio, Stewart, Lauda, Senna and Schumacher. Without a doubt his lack of due credit comes about because of the unreliability of the cars he drove, and his untimely death at the age of 32 denied Clark the chance to build an unprecedented legacy. Clark formed 50% of a legendary partnership with engineering legend Colin Chapman, whose pioneering Lotuses took Clark to the World Championship by huge margins in 1963 and 1965. A mere two titles does a great injustice to the man. Chapman's penchant for spectacular revolutionary designs inevitably meant that each year the Lotus was easily the fastest car, with easily the world's fastest driver, but had horrible reliability. If the cars had been able to make the finish line more often, Clark could easily have won every championship from 1962 to 1968.

Clark even took on and conquered the greatest American race the Indiannapolis 500. Clark was a close 2nd on debut in 1963, was denied victory by a characteristic mechanical gremlin in 1964, and then thoroughly dominated the all-American field to win in 1965, midway through his F1 title-winning year. In the modern professional era of motor racing, such a feat is even more astounding. More World Championships would surely have come after 1968 had he not been killed when a tyre de-laminated during a Formula 2 race at Hockenheim in 1968, sending him into the trees at high speed.

March 5 1963 - Eddo Brandes (Cricket)

Zimbabwe's Eddo Brandes is not a cricketer who should ever come across as particularly threatening, yet his name would make the blood of many an Englishman boil. He was one of a handful of hard working medium pace bowlers of the late 1980s and 1990s, as Zimbabwe struggled for recognition or success on the world stage. In an otherwise inauspicious part-time career, the chicken farmer dominated England's batting line-up on more than one occasion. Most notable was his 4 for 21 in the 1992 World Cup which inspired Zimbabwe to an amazing 9 run win, after they'd been bundled out for 134 batting first. In 1997 Brandes also managed a One-Day International hat-trick against England, dismissing three far from shabby batsmen, Nick Knight, John Crawley and Nasser Hussain. The cherry on top of course is his famous exchange with Glenn McGrath, where Brandes explained the source of his somewhat portly mass.

March 5 1975 - Luciano Burti (Motor Racing)

Few people other than dedicated Formula 1 enthusiasts would remember Brazilian Luciano Burti, other than his immediate family and friends. His primary claims to fame are two spectacular accidents at the end of his Formula 1 career. Although he achieved little international stardom, Burti was an impressive talent. He outperformed future F1  champion Jenson Button to be runner-up in the 1999 British Formula 3 championship. His performances impressed three-time world champion Jackie Stewart. In 2000, Stewart's team became Jaguar Racing and Burti was employed as the team's test and reserve driver, getting an unexpected debut when Eddie Irvine missed the Austrian Grand Prix with illness. In 2001 he became Irvine's permanent team-mate but fell out with the team after just four races and moved to fellow back-markers Prost. It was with Prost that he had the accidents which came to define his career. First he spectacularly vaulted the slow-starting Michael Schumacher at the start of the German Grand Prix, then two races later was lucky to survive a high speed accident at the Belgian Grand Prix. He never drove in F1 again.

March 6 1947 - Dick Fosbury (Athletics)

American Dick Fosbury became Olympic High Jump champion when he cleared an Olympic record 2.24 metres at the Mexico City games of 1968. But it was his revolutionary new jumping technique for which he is world famous. In the 1960s the prevailing method for High Jump was the straddle technique, a diving-like motion where a jumper would throw themselves over the bar facing forward and down, and then pull their legs individually over. The teenage Fosbury found this technique difficult and throughout his High School years slowly began to hone his own technique of running in at an angle and then leaping backwards, facing skyward as he arched his back and legs over the bar. His method came to be known, disparagingly, as the Fosbury flop. Fortuitously, the cushioning mats used today became standard issue around the time of Fosbury's rise. As he mastered the technique Fosbury swept all before him, and it is now the default technique for all High Jump.

WORLD CUP: Solid Australians tick the boxes

The 2011 ICC Cricket World Cup is already entering its second week, and after 10 matches of varying competitiveness and quality, it is difficult to discern whether this World Cup is destined to be a success yet. The fortunes of the tournament lie in the same unsure pensive state as the chances of the team who have dominated so thoroughly over the past decade.

I'm not a man who gets involved in a lot of these fancy new technologies (this esteemed blog aside), but doing the Internet rounds you find certain trending dialogues in social media inescapable. The latest common discourse is that this tournament  is already feeling overlong, and that there has been barely any competitive cricket in a week.

Sure, there have been inevitable logistical imperfections such as the ticketing problems for the final in Mumbai, but this is the ICC we're talking about and no Cricket expert would have expected competency from such an organisation. There hasn't been a last-ball classic yet either and we've had our fair share of huge thrashings, but all in all it's been solid viewing. Cynicism seems to be a job requirement for cricket punditry these days. It is the in-thing to pour scorn on every World Cup in the last 20 years because of the minor flaws inherent in the formats and fortuitous happenings of each tournament. In truth, of the last five World Cups, only 2007 left a sour taste in my mouth or the mouths of anyone I know.

As a wonderfully lethargic home pundit, I haven't had to experience the frustration of many (often delayed) flights back and forth around the subcontinent. I haven't had to experience India's stifling heat nor have I viewed the panorama of empty stadiums during neutral clashes. But this is the perspective of 99% of the Cricket fanatics watching this World Cup, many of whom have watched every ball just as I have, even at the late hours the games run to in Australia.

The ten games so far have all had their own unique charms. Only three have had any lasting tension late in the match but you can't expect thrillers every day from any tournament, even that model of efficiency the Football World Cup. These one-sided contests have been somewhat skewed towards the front of the tournament as well. More one-sided humiliations will come, but tight high-quality contests should pepper throughout with increasing regularity. The only real nagging problem with the World Cup is that the top 4 in each group advance to the Quarter Finals, and barring any miracles the Quarter Finalists are essentially a foregone conclusion. But each match can still be enjoyed on its own merits, and there are many marquee clashes to come, starting tonight when India face England in Bengaluru.

As the World Cup goes on, the paths of its participants will start to diverge. Some teams will ride a wave of good form, others will sink into an interminable trough, some should fluctuate wildly. Then there is the major upset or two which always finds a way of happening. The Quarter Finalists may be easy to pick, but their order isn't whatsoever.

As for Australia, they have had two comfortable wins, but still don't look convincing.There have been brilliant patches from the raging pace trio of Lee, Tait and Johnson, and the top order pairing of Watson and Haddin have looked as dominant as ever, but there are still huge questions marks over the depth in either department. Neither Zimbabwe nor New Zealand tested the Aussies, whose basic skills were enough alone to do the job. The first big test will come against Sri Lanka on Saturday. Last night came the first result that could reasonably be called an upset, with Pakistan's 11 run win over Sri Lanka. Pakistan's triumph last night could halt Sri Lanka's rampant ODI confidence, which started late last year with their series win in Australia. Sri Lanka remain favourites for the match in my book, but Pakistan might just have done Australia a great favor.

WORLD CUP: Group B Squads - The Netherlands

The Netherlands World Cup Squad

Batsmen

Alexei Kervezee - 21 - Right Hand Opening Batsman

Eric Szwarczynski - 27 - Right Hand Opening Batsman

Wesley Barresi - 26 - Right Hand Opening/Top Order Batsman - Wicket Keeper

Tom Cooper - 24 - Right Hand Top Order Batsman

Bas Zuiderent (Vice-Captain) - 33 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman

Tom de Grooth - 31 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman

Atse Buurman - 28 - Wicket Keeper - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman

All-Rounders

Ryan ten Doeschate - 30 - Right Hand Top Order Batsman - Right Arm Medium Fast Bowler

Peter Borren (Captain) - 28 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman - Right Arm Medium Bowler

Spin Bowlers

 Pieter Seelaar - 23- Left Arm Orthodox Spin Bowler

Adeel Raja - 30 - Right Arm Off Spin Bowler

Fast Bowlers

Bernard Loots - 31 - Right Arm Medium Bowler

Mudassar Bukhari - 27 - Right Arm Medium Fast Bowler

Bradley Kruger - 22 - Right Arm Fast Medium Bowler

Berend Westdijk - 25 - Right Arm Medium Bowler

The Netherlands are a frustrating enigma in their international performances. They have been one of the higher ranked associates for 20 years now, and are always improving, but have not been able to pull away substantially from the likes of Canada, Scotland and Ireland. This will be the nation's 4th World Cup, and 3rd consecutively, but there has not yet been any substantial upset. The only two Dutch World Cup wins were over fellow minnows Namibia in 2003 and Scotland in 2007. But there are signs of recent progress, not least thanks to the 2009 Twenty20 World Cup where the Dutch claimed their first Test scalp, with a win over England. They'll face England in their opening game and their performance will be indicative of whether this will be a fruitful World Cup, or a procession of easy defeats.

The Netherlands are probably the 12th strongest of 14 teams in the World Cup, yet are unlikely to win a game. The quality divide between the two groups means that the struggling Kenya and Canada have been drawn together, while the Dutch have been drawn with Associate front runners Ireland. To have any chance of a win during the tournament, the Dutch will need their star all-rounder Ryan ten Doeschate to fire. He is the marquee man in a strong and by now quite experienced looking batting line-up. The experience of Bas Zuiderent who has been at every World Cup, and the anchoring reliability of Eric Szwarczynski will provide stability, around which the young fast scoring talents Kervezee, Cooper and Barresi can play their natural game. 

As is increasingly common with the Associate teams however, there are questions over the Netherlands' bowling attack. It is the Dutch batting which has won most of their games in recent times, and none of the bowlers have yet established themselves as showing real class. However as opposed to mostly medium pacers, there are genuine quicks, something which Associate nations often lack.

Prediction

The difficulty of Group B is likely to define The Netherlands' World Cup. India and South Africa could put them to the sword, but every other game could at least be competitive in the best case scenario. Ireland though is the only team they should realistically beat, and Ireland will need to have a bad day.

Hosford's XI

Kervezee, Szwarczynski, Barresi, ten Doeschate, Zuiderent, de Grooth, Borren (C), Bukhari, Kruger, Seelaar, Adeel Raja

WORLD CUP: Group B Squads - Ireland

Ireland World Cup Squad

Batsmen

William Porterfield (Captain) - 26 - Left Hand Opening Batsman

Paul Stirling - 20 - Right Hand Opening Batsman

Ed Joyce - 32 - Left Hand Opening/Top Order Batsman

Niall O'Brien - 29 - Wicket Keeper - Left Hand Middle Order Batsman

Gary Wilson - 24 - Wicket Keeper - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman

All-Rounders

Kevin O'Brien - 26 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman - Right Arm Medium Fast Bowler

Andre Botha - 35 - Left Hand Middle Order Batsman - Right Arm Medium Bowler

Andrew White - 30 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman - Right Arm Off Spin Bowler

Alex Cusack - 30 - Right Arm Medium Fast Bowler - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman

John Mooney - 28 - Right Arm Medium Bowler - Right Hand Middle/Lower Order Batsman

Nigel Jones - 28 - Right Arm Medium Bowler - Right Hand Middle/Lower Order Batsman

Spin Bowlers

Albert Van der Merwe - 31 - Right Arm Off Spin Bowler

George Dockrell - 18 - Left Arm Orthodox Spin Bowler

Fast Bowlers

Trent Johnston - 36 - Right Arm Fast Medium Bowler

Boyd Rankin - 26 - Left Arm Medium Fast Bowler

For all of Bangladesh's recent achievements and improvements, it is Ireland who have truly had the steepest and most rapid ascent on the Cricket landscape. A decade ago they were nowhere compared to other Associate powerhouses like Kenya, Canada and The Netherlands. But their ignominious frustration was even greater. The openness of the World Cup even allowed far lesser teams like the U.A.E and Namibia to qualify before Ireland. Then came the success of the 2007 World Cup, as Ireland reached the Super Eights on the back of a spectacular upset win over Pakistan.

In the four year interim, Ireland have continued to climb the ODI ladder, becoming the undisputed top dog of the Associate nations and even jumping Zimbabwe for No.10 in the ICC rankings. The real challenge for Ireland at this World Cup is the toughness of their draw, and the unfamiliarity of the conditions. But based on the squad chosen Ireland's selectors know what they're doing. For starters more than half the squad is retained from 2007, which is particularly unusual for the associate nations. More importantly, the squad is perhaps more than any other, completely all-rounder filled. Ireland seem to have a similar setup to New Zealand, where the crux of their team lies around workhorse all-rounders rather than natural loads of talent. But on the subcontinent the formula could be perfect. Ireland are likely to play a team which bats down to No.9 and contains 7 or 8 legitimately decent bowlers.

The Irish must be careful not to fall into a trap with their novel ideas however. Recent form and the way the warm-up games played out suggests that Ireland will line up  all-rounders down to No.9, with only the young spinner Dockrell at 10 and the lanky quick Rankin at 11 as strike bowlers. Trent Johnston potentially fits as a 3rd strike bowler but has lost most of his pace and penetration now at the age of 36 Dockrell is a key weapon, being Ireland's lead spinner, but he is 18 and should not have too much pressure on his shoulders. Playing just Dockrell and the spin of all-rounder White which is scarcely above part-time quality could potentially be an underestimation of how vital spin will be in this World Cup. Yes slow medium pace will be useful too but not as much as variety will be, and Botha, Cusack, Mooney and Jones are more or less the same thing, presenting dobbly medium pace. Ireland's brilliant Top 4, and the depth of those all-rounders will provide adequate batting strength, what the Irish need to concentrate on is not conceding 300+ totals in every game and wasting their batsman's good work. The extra front-line spin of Van Der Merwe provides that option, without sacrificing the balance of a still strong batting line-up.

Prediction

Ireland have been dealt an unlucky blow in that they are in Group B.The luck is particularly unfortunate as Ireland are currently ranked 10th above Zimbabwe, but these positions have reversed since the World Cup draw was made. If based on current rankings Ireland would be in Zimbabwe's place as the 5th team of Group A, where they would likely defeat Kenya and Canada, and would fancy themselves against their old bogey Pakistan, and a distinctly average New Zealand. But in Group B they are likely to score just the one win, and will have to fight for it over the Netherlands. 

It is in the middle positions that it really becomes a group of death compared to Group A. Bangladesh and the West Indies are only a shade above Ireland, and England in current form could be gettable, so the Irish will fancy their chances of reaching the Quarter Finals, but they'd have to win two of those matches which looks a bit of a stretch (especially as the most gettable of the 3, Bangladesh, are playing in their home fortress.) Ireland should beat the Netherlands and consequently take 6th in the group.

Hosford's XI

Porterfield (C), Stirling, Joyce, N.O'Brien, K.O'Brien, White, Mooney, Johnston, Van der Merwe, Dockrell, Rankin

WORLD CUP: Group A Squads - Bangladesh

Bangladesh World Cup Squad

Batsmen

Tamim Iqbal (Vice-Captain) - 21 - Left Hand Opening Batsman

Imrul Kayes - 23 - Left Hand Opening Batsman

Shahriar Nafees - 24 - Left Hand Opening/Top Order Batsman

Junaid Siddique - 23 - Left Hand Top Order Batsman

Mohammad Ashraful - 26 - Right Hand Top/Middle Order Batsman

Raqibul Hasan - 23 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman

Mushfiqur Rahim - 22 - Wicket Keeper - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman

All-Rounders

Shakib Al-Hasan (Captain) - 23 - Left Hand Middle Order Batsman - Left Arm Orthodox Spin Bowler

Naeem Islam - 24 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman - Right Arm Off Spin Bowler

Mahmudullah - Right Arm Off Spin Bowler - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman

Spin Bowlers

Suhrawadi Shuvo - 22 - Left Arm Orthodox Spin Bowler

Abdur Razzak - 28 - Left Arm Orthodox Spin Bowler

Fast Bowlers

Nazmul Hossain - 23 - Right Arm Medium Fast Bowler

Shafiul Islam - 21 - Right Arm Fast Medium Bowler

Rubel Hossain - 21 - Right Arm Medium Fast Bowler

This World Cup represents a coming of age not just for Bangladesh's cricket team, but for the whole nation. A country of just four decades, their rise as a cricking power has been meteoric. Little more than a decade ago Bangladesh were an associate minnow, considered comfortably below Kenya and barely on par with the likes of the Scottish and Dutch. Victory over Pakistan in the 1999 World Cup was the primary stepping stone and a year later they had jumped the queue to become the 10th Test nation. But through all the steady progress in cricketing infrastructure, Test match success has been hard to come by. A disappointing 2003 World Cup where they failed to win a game, including losses to Kenya and Canada, caused many people to question their status. A first Test win came in 2005 over a declining Zimbabwe but did little to allay concerns. But since the last World Cup four years ago, Bangladesh's improvement has taken a steeper slope.

The historic win over India to qualify for the Super Eights, where they recorded another huge upset over South Africa, announced Bangladesh's arrival on the world stage. An extremely telling insight into the threat Bangladesh poses is a stat that few people seem to have taken notice of or mentioned. As of 2010 with an ODI win over England in Bristol, Bangladesh have now beaten every other Test playing nation at least once in an international match. In the last two years Bangladesh have also achieved the milestones of first Test and ODI series wins over (non-Zimbabwe) Test opposition. In 2009 Bangladesh took advantage of contract disputes in the West Indies to score twin whitewashes over a weakened team 2-0 in the Test series and 3-0 in the ODI series. Then in late 2010 came the first series win over full strength opposition, an emphatic 4-0 ODI belting of New Zealand. Looking to the future, Bangladesh cricket is in a particularly healthy place thanks to the subcontinent culture of bringing cricketers up through the levels at absurdly young ages, creating teenage international players. The Bangladesh team is made up almost exclusively of men in their early 20s, but a majority of them now have at least two to four years experience as internationals.

For all of Bangladesh's improvement, their overall status must be kept in perspective. They remain right in the lower reaches of the Test playing echelon. Their batting ranks outside the superstars Tamim and Shakib remain of a scratchy standard in an international context, and their fast bowling attack is still not of international quality. But make no mistake, Bangladesh have the weapons to do anything in this World Cup. A slew of ever-improving dangerous spin bowlers is led by their enterprising captain Shakib Al-Hasan, who must surely qualify as the best all-rounder in the world. Shakib bats at No.4 or 5 and is a genuine world class run machine, all while being his nation's premier strike bowler. The other of Bangladesh's trump cards is vice-captain Tamim Iqbal, who's impetuous destructiveness at the top of the order makes Chris Gayle look staid and consistent. If the now quite experienced middle-order batting and support spin bowling can back up Tamim and Shakib on a regular basis, Bangladesh will be a genuine force at this World Cup.

Bangladesh play all six of their group games on home turf at this World Cup, and the advantage they gain by this cannot be underestimated. Bangladesh by far have the greatest discrepancy between their home and away performances of any Test nation. Away from the subcontinent Bangladesh can still be easy beats, as they lack genuine depth in batting and especially are absent of world class fast bowlers. But the truckloads of quality spinners and uniquely spin friendly conditions (even compared to India and Sri Lanka) make Bangladesh at home every bit as tough as even the top ranked teams. No team will escape Dhaka or Chittagong without a real fight. 

Prediction

Unless they have very off days, India and South Africa will probably be beyond the Bangladeshis. But winning all four other games is genuinely realistic. In all likelihood the final Quarter-final spot will come down to the Bangladesh-West Indies match which promises to be a humdinger. But at home Bangladesh are a genuine power, and would have to be considered favourites for that game. Expect to see them in the Quarter Finals.

Hosford's XI

Tamim Iqbal, Imrul Kayes, Junaid Siddique, Mohammad Ashraful, Shakib Al-Hasan (C), Mushfiqur Rahim, Mahmudullah, Naeem Islam, Abdur Razzak, Shafiul Islam, Rubel Hossain

WORLD CUP: Group B Squads - West Indies

West Indies World Cup Squad

Batsmen

Chris Gayle - 31 - Left Hand Opening Batsman

Adrian Barath - 20 - Right Hand Opening Batsman

Devon Smith - 29 - Left Hand Opening Batsman

Shivnarine Chanderpaul - 36 - Left Hand Top/Middle Order Batsman

Ramnaresh Sarwan - 30 - Right Hand Top/Middle Order Batsman

Darren Bravo - 21 - Left Hand Middle Order Batsman

Carlton Baugh - 28 -  Wicket Keeper - Right Hand Middle/Lower Order Batsman

All-Rounders

Dwayne Bravo - 27 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman - Right Arm Medium Fast Bowler

Kieron Pollard - 23 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman - Right Arm Medium Fast Bowler

Darren Sammy (Captain) - 27 - Right Arm Fast Medium Batsman - Right Arm Lower Order Bowler

Spin Bowlers

Sulieman Benn - 29 - Left Arm Orthodox Spin Bowler

Nikita Miller - 28 - Left Arm Orthodox Spin Bowler

Fast Bowlers

Ravi Rampaul - 26 - Right Arm Fast Medium Bowler

Kemar Roach - 22 - Right Arm Fast Bowler

Andre Russell - 22 - Right Arm Fast Bowler

The West Indies are somewhat of an enigma, with a difficult to predict fate at this World Cup. They of course have been in terminal decline for the best part of twenty years, with outright turmoil filling the last ten. The Caribbean festival in 2007 went so wrong, both as a tournament thanks to the incompetence of the ICC, and the poor performance of the hosts. Their failure to really threaten any Test nations genuinely throughout the tournament was made even more disappointing because it represented the swansong of the legend Brian Lara.

The four years that have since passed have surely been the worst years yet in the sorry history of 21st century West Indies cricket. Contract disputes leading to player walkouts resulted in a humiliating pair of Test and ODI series defeats at home to Bangladesh by a team scarcely able to even be called second XI quality. The general feeling remains that the Windies to this day have not fully returned to the very best team they can play since the strike. In 2010 the notoriously blase Chris Gayle finally saw reason and resigned from the captaincy, but with no suitable candidates ready or willing, the captaincy went to Darren Sammy, despite the fact that he is far from a certain starter in any form of international Cricket. Sammy is one of the least credentialed Test and ODI captains in recent memory on paper but to his credit he has stepped up, proving to be a strong marshaller of troops and showing the natural leadership qualities the West Indies administrators saw in him. But his Cricket will need to lead by example at this World Cup.

The West Indies' squad for the tournament still looks suspiciously light on genuine talent when you consider the cricketing depth of the Caribbean system. But it is at least a stable team. The Windies recently look to be at their most stable off the field, and consistent on the field since the last World Cup. The batting is the key for the calypso men. Chris Gayle is always inconsistent but he should surely have a good day or two in the tournament, and if they come against quality opposition he could singlehandedly cause an upset. Gayle's opening partner Barath is a young superstar who could potentially lead the way for the West Indies in the World Cup. Chanderpaul, Sarwan and Dwayne Bravo have vast amounts of talent and experience in the middle order and if they all find form, any team would struggle to bowl the West Indies out. 

But the bowling looks to be a huge issue. For a nation famous for its legendary mean fast bowlers, the lack of depth is astonishing. Ravi Rampaul is international quality, but hardly world class, and yet for any West Indies ODI squad is an automatic selection. Spinners Suliemann Benn and Nikita Miller will be useful at times, but lack consistency and real killer turn. In a dilemma similar to Australia's, it could be the form of the young vibrant pair of Kemar Roach and Andre Russell that decide their fate. Both are supremely talented bowlers of express pace, but both of them (Russell in particular) are inexperienced and unproven on the big stage. If they fire along with the batsman then the West Indies could spring a surprise or two, which could be all a team needs to be out of the tournament because of the Quarter Final format.

Prediction

The West Indies unit looks to have stabilized enough to be able to play its best cricket in this tournament. But there are question marks over how good that is. They should beat Ireland and the Netherlands at least (even that looked decidedly unlikely two years ago) but D Day will be March 4 and the game against Bangladesh. There is very little to split the two sides and the in form Bangladesh recently overtook the Windies for No.8 in the ICC ODI rankings. That game should decide who makes the Quarter Finals in 4th. Neither team is likely to go any further.

Hosford's XI

 Gayle, Barath, Sarwan, Chanderpaul. Dw Bravo, Dr Bravo, Sammy (C), Baugh, Benn, Roach, Russell

The spot-fixing problem.

This past week, the Australian sporting news landscape  has seen a fortuitous conglomeration of two wholly separate stories with disturbing similarities. As news filtered through that Bulldogs prop Ryan Tandy had been arrested on charges of providing false evidence to authorities in relation to spot-fixing allegations directed at him, a storm was building on the other side of the world. Pakistan's accused trio of Salman Butt, Mohammad Asif and Mohammad Amir faced an ICC hearing on allegations of spot-fixing in a Cricket Test Match against England, while it is also been announce that the trio will face legal trial in England.

Spot-fixing is a term which is new to most people's vocabulary, if not completely new as a concept. It refers to fixing specific features of a sporting contest, usually something small and inconsequential enough in the game's overall scheme. Because bets can nowadays be made pertaining to almost any fine detail of a sporting match, corrupt individuals can involve participants in the match by promising payouts in return for a single minor action instead of something as obvious and heinous as throwing an entire match. Both of these recent examples are textbook cases of how easy spot-fixing is, and highlight the likelihood there is of far more unnoticed instances of spot-fixing.

Our local small-time spot-fixing scandal came about in September 2010, during a Round 24 match of the National Rugby League between the Canterbury Bulldogs and the North Queensland Cowboys. The preconditions for spot-fixing were rife. It was a late season match between two struggling teams both well out of finals contention, with comparatively little media exposure for an NRL match. Authorities of the NRL and TAB Sportsbet observed an unusual proportion of bets in the "first point scored" category had been placed on a Cowboys penalty goal as the first scoring instance in the match. While not especially unlikely, it was suggested that the amount of bets placed on that particular instance was outside the standard deviation of established betting patterns.

Bulldogs forward Ryan Tandy was accused of complicity when he gave up a cheap possession turnover in the opening minutes, then conceded an equally amateurish penalty in perfect kicking range for the Cowboys. The Cowboys took the surprise option of a quick tap and caught the Bulldogs off guard, scoring a try in the corner as the first points of the match instead.

Barely a month earlier in England came the spot-fixing scandal which gained worldwide attention. During the 4th and final match of a Test series between England and Pakistan at Lords, British newspaper News Of The World released a report alleging that fast bowlers Mohammad Asif and Mohammad Amir had accepted bribes from agent Mazhar Majeed to deliberately bowl no-balls on certain predetermined deliveries. Pakistan's captain Salman Butt was implicated as an intermediary in these deals. The report was the result of a sting operation by News Of The World reporters who secretly filmed Majeed counting out bribe money and stating that Amir and Asif would bowl two no-balls on certain deliveries. In the match both these predicted no-balls eventuated, and both were notably extreme oversteps.

Majeed was arrested by Scotland Yard in response to the video, and the implicated players were stood down indefinitely. Last week the ICC enquiry handed down its verdicts. Salman Butt has been banned for ten years (five suspended), Mohammad Asif for seven years (two suspended) and Mohammad Amirfor five years. The controversy has likely ended the career of two of Pakistan's best, and severely dented the career of 18 year old Amir who had been raved about in many cricketing circles as the world's next great fast bowling prodigy.

Match-fixing is not new to Cricket. A series of betting controversies plunged the game into disorder in the 1990s, centred around Indian bookmakers invariably. Cricket match-fixing made the news in Australia when it was revealed that Mark Waugh and Shane Warne had accepted money from an Indian bookmaker styling himself "John" in return to weather and pitch information a series of times throughout 1994 and 95. The scandal was heightened by the fact that the Australian Cricket Board fined the pair privately and did not release the information until it was uncovered by the media in 1998.

Most infamous of all of course were the revelations of 2000 of wide ranging match-fixing indiscretions on the part of South Africa Hansie Cronje, who was banned from all forms of Cricket for life, leaving his glowing reputation in tatters. Cronje was then killed in a light plane crash in 2002. Conspiracy theories have abounded in recent years that foul play on the part of people involved with corrupt bookmaking played a part in Cronje's death, as well as the mysterious sudden death of Pakistan coach Bob Woolmer during the 2007 World Cup. In both cases these are almost certainly conspiracies without wait, but it is a measure of the power and influence Indian and Pakistani bookmakers have over popular discourse. The bizarre flight of Pakistan wicket keeper Zulqarnain Haider in late 2010 is another example of the frightening immediacy of spot fixing. Haider ran from the team hotel in Dubai midway through a series and fled to London, making claims of threats against him and his family if he did not participate in further fixing. These bookmaking powerbrokers may not be capable of murder, but have the spectre and weight enough to make people think they are.

It was thought after the Cronje scandal, and the doors it opened in exposing related instances, that match-fixing had been largely stamped out of Cricket. In reality, the Cronjecreative types of bet. By now the real time nature of the Internet has reduced a pursuit which was once little more than picking who you thought would win a game, down to an almost infinite set of possibilities, where absolutely anything is fair game as betting fodder. On the subcontinent the outcome of every individual delivery of a Cricket match can be wagered on.

Rugby League has been happily free from Cricket's sordid recent history of corruption, but this is of little solace. The fact that a sport traditionally difficult to fix and consequently free of such problems, is now becoming embroiled in the same scandals, is perhaps even more disturbing. The nature of modern gambling has facilitated spot-fixing as a very profitable corrupt venture for those willing to try. Whether or not the Tandy case is a genuine example of spot-fixing is not of particular importance. The allegations have raised the awareness of fixing Rugby League matches as theoretically possible, to potential fixers and to an increasingly distrusting public. Recent rumours are surfacing that a second 2010 match involving the New Zealand Warriors could also have included an instance of spot-fixing.

The problem obviously is that spot-fixing can be done any number of ways and is nearly impossible to detect. Individual cases will come to light from time to time but there is no way of knowing how widespread the practice is. Traditional match-fixing involves rather blatant attempts at influencing the final result of an entire contest, but there is no conceivable limit to how spot-fixing can be covertly achieved.

Two solutions that have been posited in relation to both these scandals, particularly the local Rugby League scandal, have taken hold with certain prominent members of the sporting community. The first is banning players from betting on their own games, or betting outright. This is an important issue with many complex facets to deal with, but its an issue for another day. It is irrelevant to the spot-fixing problem as the players only financial dealings are with the corrupt fixers and bookmakers. The second distinctly local solution is a good old banning of gambling outright in this country. This is a happy notion, albeit pathologically naive. The argument overall is a political one, with views on both sides which smarter men than I understand far beyond my simple sports-centric opinions. Attempting to ban a practice so rampant and indelibly stamped in the economic fabric as it is on subcontinental markets, would do nothing except to cause turmoil and would not be a deterrent to such a powerful section of people. A practice with elements of seedy underground illegality would become consumed by seedy underground illegality exclusively. From an Australian perspective, legal sports betting remains well regulated and is perhaps the healthiest form of gambling in the country, operating with far less reputation for devastation than other forms of gambling. The nature of Internet gambling and its ability to reach anyone also has rendered any notions of nations bans obsolete.

The overriding fact is that spot-fixing is a unique and especially dangerous problem as its nature, as well as the power of those behind it, make it practically impossible to ever police, or to even notice a majority of the time. Pakistan opening batsman Yasir Hameed was quoted as saying 'almost every match' was fixed in some way. You'd like to hope this is not the case, but there's no way of knowing, particularly when Pakistan are involved. There are no perfect solutions and the reason spot-fixing is so frightening is because there appears to be no conceivable way to stop it.

Any delusions to a sporting world free of betting corruption are misplaced, just as gambling will always be a human problem. But steps can be taken to limit its spectre in sport specifically. Quite clearly the first of these must be a halt to the rampant inventing of new betting markets out of thin air. Yes sports betting is a complex science for its devotees, and there needs to be a variety of options and alternatives, but surely the need for a betting market on every single ball of a Cricket match is of little necessity. Spot-fixing is specifically about the small things, exploiting tiny inconsequential betting markets. If these are taken out, those trying to corrupt a sporting contest can to an extent be weeded out as they will have to commit substantially bigger high-stakes fixes. The rest of the work needing to be done is up to the sporting bodies though. Sports have to look after their players financially so they are not so tempted by the lure of bribes. The contexts of the two scandals in question are particularly relevant. the Pakistan Cricket Board is of course a dysfunctional organisation specialising in tumult, and regular disputes with players over their income are part and parcel of the idiocy. The NRL in turn has a notoriously inadequate salary cap. 2010 already showed the devastating impact this has had, with the Melbourne Storm salary cap scandal rocking the league to its core. If the NRL is not careful players could increasingly turn to far more shady income sources than the AFL or Rugby Union.

The final vital key in fighting the problem of corruption is to train those involved in the sport to recognise it. Players, officials, even fans to an extent. Spot-fixing is extremely difficult to pick up on, and we can never expect to notice every instance. But if more money and manpower can be put into educating referees and umpires, as well as perhaps training specialised off field observers to know what they're looking for, in time it may become harder and harder to get away with it. But the most important education is for the players themselves, so that impressionable youths like Mohammad Amir can't fall into the trap of corruption.

WORLD CUP: Group B Squads - England

England World Cup Squad

Batsmen
Andrew Strauss (Captain) - 33 - Left Hand Opening Batsman
Matthew Prior - 28 - Wicket Keeper - Right Hand Opening/Middle Order Batsman
Jonathan Trott - 29 - Right Hand Top Order Batsman
Kevin Pietersen - 30 - Right Hand Top Order Batsman
Ian Bell - 28 - Right Hand Top/Middle Order Batsman
Ravi Bopara* - 25 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman

All-rounders
Paul Collingwood - 34 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman - Right Arm Medium Bowler
Luke Wright - 25 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman - Right Arm Medium Fast Bowler
Michael Yardy - 30 - Left Arm Orthodox Spin Bowler - Left Hand Middle/Lower Order Batsman
Tim Bresnan - 25 - Right Arm Medium Fast Bowler - Right Hand Lower Order Batsman

Spin Bowlers
Graeme Swann - 31 - Right Arm Off Spin Bowler
James Tredwell - 28 - Right Arm Off Spin Bowler

Fast Bowlers
Stuart Broad - 24 - Right Arm Fast Medium Bowler
James Anderson - 28 - Right Arm Fast Medium Bowler
Ajmal Shahzad - 25 - Right Arm Fast Medium Bowler

*Edit: Bopara replaced original squad member Eoin Morgan who was withdrawn due to a finger injury.

England have the talent in their squad to sweep all before them in the World Cup and be No.1 team in the world. The ever-reliable trio of Strauss, Trott and Bell are improving every day as one-day players and will support the X-factor Pietersen adequately. Anderson, Broad and Swann are one of the best wicket-taking trios in the world, and when in form the gruff workmanlike efforts of Collingwood and Yardy are of perfect value in ODI cricket, particularly in India. But yet again the timing of a World Cup after an Australian Ashes summer has taken its toll. England cannot use this as an excuse. Yes the Australians may have the luxury of being at home as opposed to being in what equates to an endless 6 month touring party, but they have to play the same amount of Cricket over these summers. Even after this load Australia have managed to win the last two March centred World Cups.

The majority of England's squad seem to either be out of form or carrying niggling injuries and English chances of World Cup glory have slipped from the best in 20 years in November, to being most unlikely. Two thirds of England's vital bowling triumvirate are out of condition as both Swann and Broad are returning from injury layoffs. James Anderson, by some miracle perhaps, has survived so far without major injury and with the burden of carrying the attack on his shoulders. England need him to survive the tournament which is far from guaranteed with his extended workload. Jonathan Trott impressed in Australia but may not score his runs fast enough for a subcontinental World Cup. Collingwood and Prior are in bad stretches of form, and Pietersen remains as petulant and inconsistent as ever. On top of that, England's premier One-Day batsman Eoin Morgan is out of the tournament, more due to bad management than anything else. 

If England are to be a threat in this World Cup though, they'll need to sort out their side's structure. For a few games in Australia as injuries took their hold, the selectors experimented with a strange looking batsman heavy line-up with Collingwood at No.7. As soon as the system took hold it was abandoned in lieu of a more traditional setup. Aside from the fact that this seven batsman line-up managed England's only win of the series, it was a cleverer idea than it might have appeared. It didn't work primarily because every front-line bowler was missing, and because Matthew Prior opening created a structural imbalance. If Anderson, Broad and Swann are all healthy and in form, England have all the strike power they need. The variety of medium pace like Collingwood and Trott would genuinely be of more value than playing Bresnan or Shahzad as a strike weapon. With the front-line trio bowling 30 overs, it leaves just 20 to be shared by a plethora of useful bowlers: Yardy, Collingwood, Trott, Pietersen and whoever plays out of Bopara and Wright. Yardy more often than not can be relied upon to bowl all or most of his 10 overs as well. Morgan's absence may have weakened my theory slightly from a middle-order standpoint, but it remains the way to go providing Bell or Bopara open and Prior is moved down to No.7 as a specialist keeper, who's batting talents are a bonus and can anchor the lower order. What batting depth it would be to have genuine all-rounder Yardy at 8, Test centurion Broad at 9 and the very handy Swann at 10.

Prediction

The format of the tournament could be England's saving grace. If those out of form can find some form, and those in form can be taken care of so they don't break down, England should do enough to reach the Quarter Finals 3rd in the group. At full strength England would fancy their chances over any of the seven teams in Group A. Once it comes down to those final 3 games to decide a champion, it's any one's guess and if the English boys can keep their bodies going and peak at the right time they have the potential to beat anyone. My pick? Quarter-finals.

Hosford's XI

Strauss, Bopara Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Collingwood, Prior, Yardy, Broad, Swann, Anderson

WORLD CUP: Group B Squads - South Africa

South Africa World Cup Squad

Batsmen

Graeme Smith (Captain) - 29 - Left Hand Opening Batsman

Hashim Amla - 27 - Right Hand Opening/Top Order Batsman

Colin Ingram - 25 - Left Hand Top Order Batsman

AB De Villiers - 26 - Right Hand Top Order Batsman - Wicket Keeper

Jean-Paul Duminy - 26 - Left Hand Middle Order Batsman

Morne Van Wyk - 31 - Right Hand Top/Middle Order Batsman - Wicket Keeper

All-Rounders
Jacques Kallis - 35 - Right Hand Top Order Batsman - Right Arm Fast Medium Bowler
Faf du Plessis - 26 - Right Hand Middle Order Batsman - Right Arm Leg Spin Bowler

Spin Bowlers
Johan Botha - 28 - Right Arm Off Spin Bowler
Imran Tahir - 31 - Right Arm Leg Spin Bowler
Robin Peterson - 31 - Left Arm Orthodox Spin Bowler

Fast Bowlers
Dale Steyn - 27 - Right Arm Fast Bowler
Morne Morkel - 26 - Right Arm Fast Bowler

Wayne Parnell - 21 - Left Arm Medium Fast Bowler

Lonwabo Tsotsobe - 26 - Left Arm Fast Medium Bowler

South Africa have perhaps the most interesting and surprising squad of any of the 14 teams at this 2011 World Cup. It is not so much the names that are unexpected, but the sudden back flip selectors seem to have had, and how unusual the balance of the squad looks. 

South Africa's vibrant and always successful (except in World Cups) One-Day International teams have always been characterised by a certain unique approach in terms of the balance of the side. A look over South African squads of the past will see experienced packed top order batting, a select group of mean fast bowlers, with a long list of exciting medium pace bowling all-rounders of varying quality but unwavering excitement in between. Names like Klusener, Pollock, Kallis, McMillan, Kuiper, Cronje, Kemp, Hall and Morkel are just a few names that roll of the tongue. Quality spin is rare to be seen. Yes there's been names like Henry, Symcox, Adams, Crookes, Boje and Peterson, but they would hardly instill much nostalgic fear in any cricket fan's mind. The top and the bottom of the squads may look rather similar, but the diversion from standard practice comes in the middle, where the usual swashbuckling style has given away to a quartet of spinners, and a middle order more about no-nonsense prodding and poking. 

A lot has been made of this unusual squad with many people dismayed. However I feel like it's a big step in the right direction. For starters South Africa's brilliant adventurers on paper have always crumbled at the World Cup when it really mattered. More importantly, the kind of characters being persisted with were unconvincing. The biggest exclusions are the plethora of big-hitting all-rounders who were spectacular but woefully inconsistent, like Albie Morkel, David Miller and Ryan McLaren. The selectors have finally come out of their stale shell and picked an appropriate timely squad for the conditions, not afraid to take risks such as picking Imran Tahir who is yet to play a single ODI, or the unproven du Plessis and Van Wyk who may seem like surprise picks, but make perfect sense in a subcontinental context. Unfortunately one recent trend has been stuck to in this squad, the omission of Test Wicket Keeper and all-time great Mark Boucher in favour of a multi-tasking AB De Villiers behind the stumps, despite his still novice international keeping skills. Boucher's batting, safe keeping and overall experience would be of far more use, and better balance the the squad than Robin Peterson whose selection as a fourth front-line spinner borders on overkill. Smith and Duminy can adequately provide back-up spin support.

Prediction

It's always impossible making any pick about a South African World Cup performance such is their luck at the tournament. 2007 was the first World Cup in which South Africa were not eliminated through a freak upset or fortuitous happening, but instead they were mediocre and never threatened despite coming in as No.1 int he world. On paper South Africa or India should win the whole tournament and only a brave man could bet against the Proteas. But I am a brave man. South Africa will fight for 1st and 2nd in the group with India, setting up a likely Quarter-Final with major underdogs Pakistan or New Zealand. The recipe is ripe for shock and disaster there.

Hosford's XI

Smith (C), Amla, Ingram, Kallis, De Villiers, Duminy, du Plessis, Botha, Steyn, Morkel, Tsotsobe.