Two races into the 2011 Formula One Season it is reigning world champion Sebastian Vettel who sits emphatically atop the Driver's Championship with a perfect 50 points. The signs for the rest of the year are ominous as Vettel, despite some impressive and surprising race pace from McLaren, won both the Australian and Malaysian Grands Prix with relative ease. A variety of frustrations have beset his interminably unfortunate team-mate Mark Webber, who sits in a tie for 3rd with just 22 points. With the closeness at time in race pace, and Webber's struggles, one could be forgiven for thinking we have yet another exciting competitive year on our hands. There's every indication that may not be the case however. At regular vital intervals Red Bull have shown that they have easily the year's premier car, as can only be expected from master designer Adrian Newey who Martin Brundle aptly called "the Leonardo Da Vinci of Formula One."
Rumour has it that at this weekend's Chinese Grand Prix, every team in the paddock except the three new boys, and Red Bull, will run with their Kinetic Energy Recovery Systems technology. This technology acts as a glorified push to pass system essentially, with a complex system of energy recovery under braking being able to transfer back into the power train for 80bhp extra power per lap, for seven seconds. The FIA introduced the scheme for the primary purpose of overtaking of course, but it is said to be worth on some circuits more than half a second per lap. Red Bull have had problems with faulty KERS since the introduction of their car and have swept to both pole positions and both victories almost entirely without the system's bonus power. The disadvantage is twofold though, as the KERS motor's 35kg weight means 35kg less ballast to move around the car, significantly limiting the potential for optimum weight distribution. If Red Bull do decide to remove the system from their car entirely in China, they will shed the one element that seems to have most affected the stability of the car. The big question at this race, especially if without KERS, is whether the RB7 will be better balanced and able to extend its already sizable gap to the rest of the field. If this happens I fear we may not see Vettel threatened on his way to an emphatic title defense.
The possibly mistaken view that 2011 is going to be thrillingly close comes from the simple fact that 2010 was also deceiving in its tightness. 2010 was really an astonishing season, with five men leading the world championship and the unprecedented scenario of four drivers still in the running at the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Vettel won the title despite having not led the points standings once during the entire season before the final race. Throughout the whole season Vettel utterly dominated qualifying and always loomed as a man likely to threaten for the title, even when he was as low as fifth in the standings.
In truth Sebastian could call himself unlucky that he wasn't already a World Champion. For all of his astonishingly short career he had impressed, from scoring a point on debut at the age of 19, to shining spectacularly as a late season replacement for Toro Rosso in 2007. In 2008, after a tough start adjusting to a difficult car, Vettel was supreme, scoring a remarkable pole to flag win for the small team in driving rain at Monza. Then he came to Red Bull in 2009 and largely dominated his new team-mate Mark Webber in the process. Webber was already entrenched at the team and is not just experienced but fantastically fast. Before Vettel no-one had come close to challenging Webber's domination over all his team-mates for qualifying pace. Vettel won third time out in China and went on to win three more races on his way to second in the championship, not too far behind Jenson Button. Although few would begrudge Button his title, the truth remains that all six of his wins came in the first seven races thanks in large part to the headstart his Brawn GP team had by virtue of a loophole in the regulations. By that time Newey's RB5 had established itself as the class of the field and Button did not win again all year.
Vettel came in 2010 frustrated from being so near yet so far in 2009. His nerves and inexperience often came to the forefront, in a series of often controversial errors. In reality, Vettel's own faltering resolve, and the fallible reliability of the RB6, conspired to almost lose a championship that should gone their way in a canter.
Vettel won the 2010 World Championship with 256 points on the back of five wins. Alonso was just four points behind (seven points seperate 1st and 2nd in every race to give an idea how close that is), on 252 with Webber on 242 and McLaren's Lewis Hamilton on 240. Vettel could very easily have run away with the title by over 100 points however, but was denied liberally by car failures and brain failures. The most inopportune mechanical gremlins afflicted Vettel while leading three grands prix, two of them surely guaranteed victories. Vettel's own youthful exuberance ruined his weekend at least another four times. Here's a short summary of only those major setbacks which spring to the forefront of the mind:
Bahrain - Vettel dominated all weekend and was easily on his way to a pole-to-flag victory before a spark plug failure on the engine hamstrung the car. The Ferraris of Alonso and Massa drove past as if Vettel was standing still and finished 1-2. Even with the initially fatal-looking problem, Vettel still somehow salvaged 4th.
Australia - Once again Vettel took a dominant pole position and pulled immediately away at the front before a break failure plunged him into the gravel and out of the race. With the wet conditions Vettel was far from guaranteed victory but surely lost major points again.
Spain - Another break failure denied Vettel 2nd place and once again it was the class of the man which still salvaged 3rd (with help from Lewis Hamilton who crashed out of 2nd) when it looked as if he was set for retirement.
Turkey - The famous collision, as Vettel threw away a guaranteed 18 points and possible 25 with an ill-advised move on team-mate Mark Webber to take the lead. The move handed victory to McLaren but while Webber recovered to 3rd, it was DNF for Vettel.
Great Britain - After racing to his now customary pole position, Vettel got a poor start and then an over-aggressive squeeze on team-mate Webber to try and hold the lead left Vettel off the track and with a puncture that sent him to dead last. He recovered to finish 7th but with Red Bull's dominant pace it should have been at least 2nd.
Germany - Yet again Vettel fluffed the start from pole, losing out to both Ferrari's, and that's where he stayed all day.
Hungary - Another pole, another solid lead. Then an obscure safety-car rule cost Vettel of all things, as he failed to stay within 10 car lengths of the safety-car in front and was given a drive-through penalty that dropped him to 3rd.
Belgium - Like Australia, the race at Spa was wet and wild with no guarantees, but Vettel made extra sure he wouldn't score points with an amateurish crash into Jenson Button that broke his front wing and earned him a drive-through penalty. This was compounded by a puncture later in the race and Vettel finished 15th.
Korea - For the 3rd time, and most heartbreaking, Vettel's RB6 gave up the ghost while he led convincingly. This time there was just 10 laps to go and Vettel was well clear of Fernando Alonso when his engine gave way spectacularly, seemingly ending his championship chances.
Obviously mistakes can happen, even more assuredly will reliability strike at inopportune moments. But there is much to read from Vettel and Red Bull's near-self destruction in 2010. What must be remembered is that Vettel is just 23 years of age, comfortably the sport's youngest ever World Champion. Furthermore, his Red Bull team are also babies in the grand scheme of things, having entered F1 in 2005 and only become competitive in 2009 as Adrian Newey's influence took over. Neither team or driver could be expected to possess the kind of battle-hardened consistent acumen to get the job done as the old hands at Ferrari and McLaren might have.
The fact is that Vettel and Red Bull were unlucky not to be champions in 2009, and 2010 should have been a walk in the park. The reason it was not was because neither party had ever reached these heights before. Now the job is done, the ambition is achieved, and the pressure which seemed to utterly overwhelm anyone near Vettel, has been lifted. Since it debuted in testing this year, Newey's RB7 has looked as fast as can ever be expected, but also possessing of nearly flawless reliability. More importantly, Sebastian looks to have followed the same path. There is an aura of calm contentment around Vettel these days which belies his age, and clearly not by coincidence, he has looked ominously metronomic on track.
Sebastian Vettel is clearly one of a handful of truly special drivers in the world today, surely matched only by Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton. At his best it is arguable he is unmatched even by those peers. Adrian Newey IS unmatched at what he does, that bears no cause for argument. Vettel has shown signs in the two races so far in 2011, that he can match the uncanny speed he was born with, to the kind of inch-perfect precision that made the only other German World Champion Michael Schumacher so unbeatable at times. If Adrian Newey can give him the car to match for years to come, who's to say there won't be another German dynasty?
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