Tuesday, January 25, 2011

PREDICTION OF THE DAY: Australia vs Japan Asian Cup final

Australia's favourite team for heart wrenching tension and suffering, the Socceroos, find themselves 90 minutes (or maybe 120 more likely) from a date in the final of the 2011 Asian Cup. Tonight sees both semi-finals of the dramatic albeit inadequately attended tournament. At midnight old rivals Japan and South Korea face, anybody's game on paper but form suggests Japan might have the edge. A few hours later the Socceroos take on Uzbekistan. They may not be an Asian powerhouse which strikes fear into the hearts like a Japan or Korea, but make no mistake Uzbekistan are a force to be reckoned with, and are genuinely and consistently in or near the best four teams in Asia. Their efforts are in no way a fluke. But the Socceroos should have too much class for their smaller opponents. The question is whether Australia's quarter-final with reigning champions Iraq, a game we dominated but could not win until the closing minutes, will repeat itself. Until the final minutes of regulation time, the Socceroos dominated in every facet of play, but could not open the scoring. It took a spectacular Harry Kewell header from a pinpoint Matt McKay cross to finally put the game to bed twenty-eight minutes into the half an hour extra time period, avoiding a dreaded penalty shoot-out by just two minutes.

Likely Line-up 
Goal Keeper: Schwarzer 
Defenders: Wilkshire, Neill, Ognenovski, Carney
Midfielders: Emerton, Valeri, Jedinak, Holman
Forwards: Cahill, Kewell

The good news for the Socceroos is that all their injury dramas are behind them, save for Jason Culina who has returned home and whom Carl Valeri has more than adequately replaced. Luke Wilkshire and David Carney pulled up well from their returns in the quarter-final, and Tim Cahill is a certain starter despite countless minor niggles. Brett Emerton also boosts the squad, returning from a red card suspension in the quarter final. However Emerton is likely to displace the impressive Matt McKay from the squad. It might be pertinent, if chancy, to really grab the game by the horns and go on the attack by benching Valeri. Instead Socceroos coach Holger Osieck might want to consider a diamond midfield formation with Jedinak in a defensive role, Emerton and McKay on the wings and the gloriously in form Holman up forward providing more support for Cahill and Kewell.

Regardless of the team configuration though, it will take a particularly bad performance, woefully bad luck or a probable combination of both to deny the Socceroos passage to a historic Asian Cup final.

Prediction
1st Semi Final: Korea 1 (Cha Du-Ri 57') vs Japan 1 (Hasebe 83')
Japan win 4-3 on penalties
2nd Semi Final: Australia 1 (Holman 35') vs Uzbekistan 0

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